Trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs) are widely used but protect against only 1 of the 2 co-circulating influenza B virus lineages. Quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) include a B strain from each lineage to overcome mismatches. The main objective of this study was to determine the cost-utility and budget impact of switching from vaccination with TIV to QIV in the population recommended for influenza vaccination in Turkey.
A static cohort cost-effectiveness model was developed to predict influenza-related costs and outcomes under a QIV versus a TIV program during an influenza season. The model was informed by data from Turkey on influenza strain distribution, influenza-attributable outcomes, and associated costs over the seasons 2010/2011 to 2016/2017. The effectiveness of each strategy was measured through quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and comparisons were based on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.
In an average influenza season, the model showed that switching from TIV to QIV would prevent an additional 15 092 cases of influenza, 6311 general practitioner visits, 94 hospitalizations, 13 deaths, and gain 440 QALYs. From the societal perspective, this amounted to total cost savings of international dollars (I$) 1102 710 (US$388 643). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio when using QIV over TIV was I$55 248/QALY gained. Switching to QIV is mostly cost-effective among older adults with I$36 413.38/QALY. Sensitivity analysis showed that vaccine effectiveness, B strain mismatch, and influenza visits highly impact the cost-effectiveness results.
Switching from TIV to QIV is likely to be cost-effective in Turkey, yet highly dependent on the severity of the influenza season, B strain epidemiology, and vaccine effectiveness.