BACKGROUND Although radioiodine therapy (RIT) efficacy is thoroughly validated for Graves disease (GD), there is a lack of research on the predictive factors of RIT, especially the optimal thyroid-absorbed dose (TD) with a shorter effective half-life (Teff ≤5 days). The goal of this study was to explore the predictive value of TD in GD patients receiving RIT with a shorter Teff. MATERIAL AND METHODS We studied 208 GD patients receiving RIT with a shorter Teff. Plotting the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve verified the accuracy of TD for predicting RIT efficacy in GD patients. In addition, we conducted univariate and multivariate analyses to investigate the influence of 14 factors, including thyroid weight, TD, 24-h radioiodine uptake rate (RAIU), the highest RAIU, thyrotrophin receptor antibody level, thyroglobulin antibody level, thyroid peroxidase antibody level, and others, on curative effects of RIT. RESULTS Of the 208 study participants, complete remission and the total effectiveness rates were 68.3% and 92.3%, respectively. The threshold value of TD to predict RIT efficacy was 70.2 Gy, based on ROC analysis. Univariate analysis showed that 24-h RAIU, Teff, total iodine dose, iodine dose per gram of thyroid tissue, TD, and thyrotropin receptor antibody level were significantly associated with RIT efficacy. Multivariate analysis indicated that 24-h RAIU, total iodine dose, iodine dose per gram of thyroid tissue, and TD were significant independent predictors of RIT efficacy. CONCLUSIONS Predicting RIT efficacy from TD with a shorter Teff was feasible in GD patients, and TD above 70.2 Gy had an especially high predictive accuracy.