To evaluate the utility of a modified (i.e., without the variable “Age >80 years”) simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) in elderly patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE), and to derive and validate a refined version of the sPESI for identification of elderly patients at low risk of adverse events.
The study included normotensive patients aged >80 years with acute PE enrolled in the RIETE registry. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to create a new risk score to predict 30-day all-cause mortality. We externally validated the new risk score in elderly patients from the COMMAND VTE registry.
Multivariable logistic regression identified four predictors for mortality: high-risk sPESI, immobilization, coexisting deep vein thrombosis (DVT), and plasma creatinine >2 mg/dL. In the RIETE derivation cohort, the new model classified fewer patients as low risk (4.0% [401/10,106]) compared to the modified sPESI (35% [3522/10,106]). Low-risk patients based on the new model had a lower 30-day mortality than those based on the modified sPESI (1.2% [95% CI, 0.4-2.9%] versus 4.7% [95% CI, 4.0-5.4%]). In the COMMAND VTE validation cohort, 1.5% (3/206) of patients were classified as having low risk of death according to the new model, and the overall 30-day mortality of this group was 0% (95% CI, 0-71%), compared to 5.9% (95% CI, 3.1-10.1%) in the high-risk group.
For predicting short-term mortality among elderly patients with acute PE, this study suggests that the new model has a substantially higher sensitivity than the modified sPESI. A minority of these patients might benefit from safe outpatient therapy of their disease.
About The Expert
Raquel Morillo
David Jiménez
Behnood Bikdeli
Carmen Rodríguez
Andrés Tenes
Yugo Yamashita
Takeshi Morimoto
Takeshi Kimura
Gemma Vidal
Nuria Ruiz-Giménez
Olivier Espitia
Manuel Monreal
References
PubMed