Many nations and territories have been making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination since the introduction of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016 and until the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020. For a study, researchers assessed HCV burden in 2020 and set a goal to anticipate HCV burden by 2030 based on existing trends. A literature study, Delphi method, and mathematical modeling were used to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases). It was also essential to a cascade of care among people of all ages (age 0 years from birth) from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2030. Epidemiological data was gathered from published sources and grey literature (including official papers and personal correspondence), and it was then verified by professionals from each country and region. For countries and territories with data, a Markov model was used to anticipate illness load and care cascades from 1950 to 2050. From 2015 through 2030, model results were used to create population-weighted regional averages, which were utilized for nations or territories that lacked data. HCV prevalence estimates at the regional and global levels, as well as the HCV cascade.
For 110 countries or territories, models were created: 83 were accepted by local experts, and 27 were based only on published data. On January 1, 2020, Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), researchers estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0.7% (95% UI .0.7–0·9). It was corresponding to the 56.8 million (95% UI 55·2–67·8) infections. This number represented a decrease of 6·8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of the year) prevalence estimated 63.6 million (61.8–75.8) infections (0.9% [0.8–1.0] prevalence). However, by the end of 2020, an estimated 12.9 million (12·5–15·4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641,000 (623,000–765,000) individuals were expected to begin therapy.
Reference:www.thelancet.com/journals/langas/article/PIIS2468-1253(21)00472-6/fulltext
