Planning for public health interventions and understanding changes in cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and illness by age, sex, race, and ethnicity are crucial. For a study, researchers sought to estimate the population’s prevalence of CV risk factors and illness and further investigate racial, ethnic, and sex inequalities.

By combining data from the 2020 U.S. Census projection counted for the years 2025–2060 with logistic regression models based on data from the 2013–2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, it was possible to estimate the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors (diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and obesity) and CV diseases (ischemic heart disease, heart failure, myocardial infarction, and stroke) by age, sex, race, and ethnicity.

By 2060, compared to 2025, the prevalence of diabetes mellitus would rise by 39.3% (from 39.2 million [M] to 54.6 M), hypertension by 27.2% (from 127.8M] to 162.5M), dyslipidemia by 27.5% (98.6M to 125.7M), and obesity by 18.3%. (106.3M to 125.7M). The prevalence of ischemic heart disease was expected to rise by 31.1% (21.9M to 28.7M), heart failure by 33.0% (9.7M to 12.9M), myocardial infarction by 30.1% (12.3M to 16.0M), and stroke by 34.3% (10.8M to 14.5M) compared to 2025. The frequency of CV risk factors and illness was anticipated to decline among White people, but large increases were anticipated in racial and ethnic minorities.

Racial and ethnic minorities were expected to be disproportionately affected by forecasted significant future increases in CV risk factors and disease incidence. To deliver high-quality, affordable, and accessible healthcare, future health policies and public health initiatives should take these findings into consideration.

Reference: jacc.org/doi/10.1016/j.jacc.2022.05.033