Current HPV vaccination rates will have a limited effect on the overall incidence of oropharynx cancer (OPC) through 2045 because older individuals who have not yet been vaccinated remain at high risk, according to a study published in JAMA Oncology. Researchers modeled projected 2018-2045 OPC incidence under scenarios of no HPV vaccination and current levels of HPV vaccination. Under current HPV vaccination rates, between 2018 and 2045, OPC incidence is projected to decrease in younger individuals (aged 36-45: from 1.4 to 0.8 per 100,000 population; aged 46-55: from 8.7 to 7.2 per 100,000 population) but will continue to increase among older individuals (aged 70-83: from 16.8 to 29.0 per 100,000 population). The association of HPV vaccination with overall OPC incidence through 2045 will only be modestly affected by HPV vaccination (no vaccination vs vaccination: 14.3 vs 13.8 per 100,000 population in 2045). It is estimated that by 2045, 6,334 OPC cases will be prevented with HPV vaccination, with 88.8% of the benefit to be seen in those aged 55 or younger.
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