The aim of this study was to model the short term and 2-year overall survival for intermediate- and low-risk patients with severe symptomatic AS undergoing timely or delayed transcatheter aortic valve replacement during the 2019 novel coronavirus pandemic.
We developed a decision analysis model to evaluate two treatment strategies for both low-risk and intermediate-risk patients with aortic stenosis during the 2019 novel coronavirus pandemic.
Prompt transcatheter aortic valve replacement resulted in improved 2-year overall survival when compared to delayed intervention for intermediate-risk patients (0.81 versus 0.67) and low-risk patients (0.95 vs 0.85), due to the risk of death or the need for urgent/emergent transcatheter aortic valve replacement in the waiting period. However, if the probability of acquiring the 2019 novel coronavirus is greater than 55% (intermediate risk patients) or 47% (low risk patients), delayed transcatheter aortic valve replacement is favorable to prompt intervention (0.66 vs 0.67, intermediate risk; 0.84 vs 0.85, low risk).
Prompt transcatheter aortic valve replacement for both intermediate-risk and low-risk patients with symptomatic severe aortic stenosis results in improved 2-year survival when local healthcare system resources are not significantly constrained by the 2019 novel coronavirus.

© 2021 The Authors.