Journal of diabetes investigation 2018 03 14() doi 10.1111/jdi.12837
Limited data are available regarding the performance of non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL) in predicting incident diabetes. We aimed to analyze the association between non-HDL and development of diabetes, and to estimate the cut-off point of non-HDL for discriminating incident diabetes in people with normal glucose tolerance (NGT).
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Of 3653 middle aged and elderly Chinese with NGT at enrollment, 1,025 men and 1,805 women returned to the 3-year follow-up and involved in the fianl analysis. Logistic regression analysis was used to test the association between cholesterol indices and incident diabetes, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were used to identify the optimal cut-off of each cholesterol variable for incident diabetes.
Non-HDL was an independent risk factor for diabetes for women, but not for men. In women, a one SD increment in non-HDL was associated with a 1.43 (95% CI, 1.14-1.79; P = 0.002) fold higher risk of diabetes, while ORs for total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were 1.33 (95% CI, 1.06-1.67; P = 0.015) and 1.30 (95% CI, 1.04-1.64; P = 0.024), respectively. The discriminatory power and the optimal cut-off value of non-HDL for incident diabetes increased across body mass index (BMI) categories. For women with obesity, the threshold of non-HDL for screening of diabetes was estimated as 3.51 mmol/L.
Non-HDL had better performance than traditional cholesterol indices in predicting diabetes in women, but not in men. BMI specific threshold value for non-HDL controlling target is needed in the prevention of type 2 diabetes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.