Open forum infectious diseases 2017 05 054(2) ofx056 doi 10.1093/ofid/ofx056
There is lack of reliable predictors of disease severity and mortality in dengue. The present study was carried out to identify these predictors during the 2015 outbreak in India.
This prospective observational study included confirmed adult dengue patients hospitalized between August and November 2015 in a tertiary care centre in New Delhi, India. Appropriate statistical tests were used to compare clinicolaboratory characteristics, derive predictors of severe disease and mortality, and compute a predictive score for mortality. Serotyping was done.
Data of 369 patients were analyzed (mean age, 30.9 years; 67% males). Of these, 198 (54%) patients had dengue fever, 125 (34%) had dengue hemorrhagic fever (grade 1 or 2), and 46 (12%) developed dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Twenty-two (6%) patients died. Late presentation to the hospital (≥5 days after onset) and dyspnea at rest were identified as independent predictors of severe disease. Age ≥24 years, dyspnea at rest and altered sensorium were identified as independent predictors of mortality. A clinical risk score was developed (12*age + 14*sensorium + 10*dyspnea), which, if ≥22, predicted mortality with a high sensitivity (81.8%) and specificity (79.2%). The predominant serotypes in Delhi (2015) were dengue virus DENV2 and DENV4.
Age ≥24 years, dyspnea at rest, and altered sensorium were identified as independent predictors of mortality. Platelet counts did not determine outcome in dengue patients. Timely referral/access to healthcare is important. The clinical risk score for mortality prediction that was developed in this study can be used in all healthcare settings, after validation in larger cohorts.