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Spatio-temporal coherence of dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in Merida, Mexico.

Spatio-temporal coherence of dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in Merida, Mexico.
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Bisanzio D, Dzul-Manzanilla F, Gomez-Dantés H, Pavia-Ruz N, Hladish TJ, Lenhart A, Palacio-Vargas J, González Roldan JF, Correa-Morales F, Sánchez-Tejeda G, Kuri Morales P, Manrique-Saide P, Longini IM, Halloran ME, Vazquez-Prokopec GM,


Bisanzio D, Dzul-Manzanilla F, Gomez-Dantés H, Pavia-Ruz N, Hladish TJ, Lenhart A, Palacio-Vargas J, González Roldan JF, Correa-Morales F, Sánchez-Tejeda G, Kuri Morales P, Manrique-Saide P, Longini IM, Halloran ME, Vazquez-Prokopec GM, (click to view)

Bisanzio D, Dzul-Manzanilla F, Gomez-Dantés H, Pavia-Ruz N, Hladish TJ, Lenhart A, Palacio-Vargas J, González Roldan JF, Correa-Morales F, Sánchez-Tejeda G, Kuri Morales P, Manrique-Saide P, Longini IM, Halloran ME, Vazquez-Prokopec GM,

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PLoS neglected tropical diseases 2018 03 1512(3) e0006298 doi 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006298
Abstract

Response to Zika virus (ZIKV) invasion in Brazil lagged a year from its estimated February 2014 introduction, and was triggered by the occurrence of severe congenital malformations. Dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) invasions tend to show similar response lags. We analyzed geo-coded symptomatic case reports from the city of Merida, Mexico, with the goal of assessing the utility of historical DENV data to infer CHIKV and ZIKV introduction and propagation. About 42% of the 40,028 DENV cases reported during 2008-2015 clustered in 27% of the city, and these clustering areas were where the first CHIKV and ZIKV cases were reported in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Furthermore, the three viruses had significant agreement in their spatio-temporal distribution (Kendall W>0.63; p<0.01). Longitudinal DENV data generated patterns indicative of the resulting introduction and transmission patterns of CHIKV and ZIKV, leading to important insights for the surveillance and targeted control to emerging Aedes-borne viruses.

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