Computed tomography (CT)-derived finite element (FE) models have been proposed as a tool to improve the current clinical assessment of osteoporosis and personalized hip fracture risk by providing an accurate estimate of femoral strength. However, this solution has two main drawbacks, namely: (i) 3D CT images are needed, whereas 2D dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images are more generally available, and (ii) quasi-static femoral strength is predicted as a surrogate for fracture risk, instead of predicting whether a fall would result in a fracture or not. The aim of this study was to combine a biofidelic fall simulation technique, based on 3D computed tomography (CT) data with an algorithm that reconstructs 3D femoral shape and BMD distribution from a 2D DXA image. This approach was evaluated on 11 pelvis-femur constructs for which CT scans, ex vivo sideways fall impact experiments and CT-derived biofidelic FE models were available. Simulated DXA images were used to reconstruct the 3D shape and bone mineral density (BMD) distribution of the left femurs by registering a projection of a statistical shape and appearance model with a genetic optimization algorithm. The 2D-to-3D reconstructed femurs were meshed, and the resulting FE models inserted into a biofidelic FE modeling pipeline for simulating a sideways fall. The median 2D-to-3D reconstruction error was 1.02 mm for the shape and 0.06 g/cm for BMD for the 11 specimens. FE models derived from simulated DXAs predicted the outcome of the falls in terms of fracture versus non-fracture with the same accuracy as the CT-derived FE models. This study represents a milestone towards improved assessment of hip fracture risk based on widely available clinical DXA images.Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Inc.