As panic descends and aggressive lockdown measures start in the US, are we causing more harm on a population level than good? Regardless of the answer, we need to discuss the question. Legendary vaccine scientist and rationalist Dr. Paul Offit and I discuss the current response to the COVID-19 epidemic, relationships to influenza and RSV, absolute vs. relative risk, which populations we should target most for social distancing, the fecal-oral spread of this novel coronavirus, comparisons to norovirus and rotavirus, and a deep dive into vaccine development and its challenges.
I totally agreed. I have argued that it would be much more rational to develop a model (not too difficult) that estimates the probability that someone would die on the basis of risk factors (age, heart desease yes/no etc.) and put the people who are above a certain threshhold in isolation with the communicty providing them food and medical suppleies at home or in a shelter. The current approach is totally absurd and hyterical.