Fertility among rural women in Uganda continues to decline. Studies on fertility in Uganda have focused on the overall fertility in the country. In this study, we focus on determinants of change in fertility among rural women in Uganda using a multivariate Poisson decomposition technique to quantify the contribution of changes in the socio-economic and demographic composition of women, which we also refer to as the characteristic effects and transitions in their fertility behavior to the overall reduction in-fertility among women in rural areas.
On the other hand, fertility behavior also presented as coefficients’ developments mean changes in the risk or likelihood of giving birth to children by the rural women between the two survey years.
Our findings indicate that the MCEB reduced from 4.5 to 3.9 in 2006. This reduction was associated with both the changes in the composition of women and fertility behavior. Women’s arrangement contributed to 42%, while the fertility behavior contributed to 58% of the observed reduction. The education level attained, and the age at first sex showed significant contributions to both decomposition components. The observed decline in fertility is mostly associated with the variation in childbearing risk among rural women.
The variation in the risk of delivery by education and age at first sex of the rural women showed the most significant contribution to the observed change in-fertility. Continued improvements in access, attendance, and completion of secondary schools by women in rural areas will be the critical drivers to Uganda’s overall transition to low fertility.