For a study, the researchers sought to see if early serum neurofilament light (sNfL) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (sGFAP) levels, assessed at baseline and 1 year later, provide predictive value to models of commonly measured variables at MS onset on 10-year clinical and MRI outcomes. Patients with MS who had 2 serum samples taken within 3 years of onset and were followed for 10 years were identified. Quanterix Simoa® was used to measure and log transform sNfL and sGFAP. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR, 95% CI) for the connection between biomarkers (baseline and change) and time to new attack or MRI lesion, which were adjusted for age, sex, BMI, and treatment status. Researchers also utilized the appropriate regression to determine the relationship between secondary progressive MS (SPMS), the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), brain T2-lesion volume (T2LV), and brain parenchymal percentage with 10-year outcomes (BPF). Researchers provide the p-value change in model fit, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), and adjusted R2. A total of 144 individuals were included in the study, with a mean (SD) age of 37.4 (9.7) at the time of the beginning of MS. Serum was collected at 1.07 (0.57) and 2.41 (0.65) years after the commencement of the disease. Higher baseline sNfL was linked to an increased risk of attack (1.34, 1.01-1.77, p=0.040) and the development of a new MRI lesion (1.35, 1.01-1.74, p=0.022). After a 10-year follow-up, SPMS developed in 25 patients (17.4%). For predicting SPMS, the model with clinical data had an AUC of 0.75. Adding initial sNfL and sGFAP improved model fit (p=0.008), increased the AUC to 0.79 and added follow-up measurements improved the model even more (p=0.046) and increased the AUC to 0.82. Clinical models for all other outcomes were improved by including initial and follow-up biomarkers: the adjusted R2 for 10-year EDSS improved from 0.295 to 0.332 with the addition of initial sNfL and sGFAP (p=0.009 for model comparison), and to 0.349 with follow-up biomarker values (p=0.068); for T2LV, from 0.073 to 0.220 (p<0.0001) to 0.265 (p=0.009); and for BPF, from 0.110 to 0.144 (p=0.034) to 0.174 (p=0.040). sNfL at MS onset was linked to the likelihood of inflammatory activity, and assessing baseline and one-year follow-up sNfL and sGFAP improves predictive models of 10-year clinical and MRI outcomes. Prospective research on the dynamics of serum biomarkers for disease monitoring and therapy response was required.


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