Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and hypertension are closely associated with each other. A few studies suggest that in addition to hypertension, temporal trends in systolic BP could be a potential risk factor of kidney function decline. This study aims to evaluate the longitudinal trajectories of systolic BP in individuals without CKD and hypertension.

This prospective community-based cohort study included a total of 4,643 participants without CKD or hypertension. Three systolic BP trajectories: decreasing, stable, and increasing were categorized to study the association of changing systolic BP and the incidence of CKD. The primary endpoint of the study was the incident CKD confirmed with eGFR measurements (<60 ml/min).

During the median follow-up of 7.7 years, a total of 339 participants developed incident CKD. The rates of incidence in participants with decreasing, stable, and increasing systolic BP were 8.9, 9.6, and 17.8 cases per 1000 person-years, respectively. Multivariable Cox analysis indicated that increasing systolic BP trajectory was associated with 1.57 times higher risk of CKD when compared with stable trajectory. Increasing systolic BP was also linked to a higher risk of albuminuria.

The research concluded that increasing systolic BP was associated with a 1.57-fold higher risk of CKD in individuals without hypertension.