: Children aged under 5 years are particularly vulnerable to influenza infection. In this study, we aim to estimate the number and incidence of influenza among young children and estimate the impact of childhood vaccination in different scenarios from 2013/14 to 2016/17 seasons.: The number and incidence rate of influenza infections among children aged under 5 years in Beijing was estimated by scaling up observed surveillance data. Then, we used a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery (SEIR) model to reproduce the weekly number of influenza infections estimated in Beijing during the study seasons, and to estimate the number and proportion of influenza-attributed medically attended acute respiratory infections (I-MAARI) averted by vaccination in each season. Finally, we evaluated the impact of alternative childhood vaccination programs with different coverage and speed of vaccine distribution.: The estimated average annual incidence of influenza in children aged under 5 years was 33.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 27.5%, 47.2%) during the study period. With the actual coverage during the included seasons at around 2.9%, an average of 3.9% (95%CI: 3.5%, 4.4%) I-MAARI was reduced compared to a no-vaccination scenario. Reaching 20%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 80% and 100% vaccine coverage would lead to an overall I-MAARI reduction of 25.3%, 42.7%, 51.9%, 57.0%, 65.3% and 71.2%. At 20% coverage scenario, an average of 28.8% I-MAARI will be prevented if intensive vaccination implemented in 2 months since the vaccine released.: In Beijing, the introduction of a program for vaccinating young children, even at relatively low vaccine coverage rates, would considerably reduce I-MAARI, particularly if the vaccines can be quickly delivered.
Calculating Starting Age for Screening in Relatives of Patients With Colorectal Cancer Based on Data From Large Nationwide Datasets.
April 7, 2020
Development and evaluation of an indirect ELISA based on recombinant structural protein VP2 to detect antibodies against duck hepatitis A virus.
June 4, 2020
The association between severe menopausal symptoms and engagement with HIV care and treatment in women living with HIV.
April 14, 2020
November 6, 2019
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