Updated diagnostic guidelines for eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) have eliminated the requirement for a proton pump inhibitor (PPI) trial, but there are no models to identify patients with EoE based on these new criteria. We aimed to develop a predictive model for diagnosis of EoE based on the updated EoE diagnostic guidelines.
We performed a secondary analysis of a prospective study of adult patients referred for outpatient esophagogastroduodenoscopy at University of North Carolina who had symptoms of esophageal dysfunction; patients with prevalent EoE were excluded. We analyzed data from 206 EoE cases (mean age 40.1, 62.6% male, 93.2% white) and 306 controls (mean age 52.3, 37.9% male, 79.7% white). We built predictive models for case-control status, using clinical, endoscopic, and histologic features, and defining EoE by either the new or historical definition of PPI non-response. Model discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC).
Before endoscopy, younger age, male sex, history of atopic condition or food allergy, and dysphagia identified patients with EoE with an AUC of 0.83. When we included endoscopy findings suggestive of EoE, the model identified patients with EoE with an AUC of 0.92; this increased to 0.99 when histology was included.
We developed a model to identify patients with EoE, without a trial of PPIs, based on updated diagnostic guidelines. Clinical features and endoscopic findings identified patients with EoE with an AUC of 0.92-even without histologic data and in the absence of dysphagia. This model can be used to select patients with upper gastrointestinal symptoms but without dysphagia for early diagnostic endoscopy. The model can also be used to identify cases of EoE when eosinophil counts are greater than 15 in biopsies but other causes of esophageal eosinophilia cannot necessarily be excluded.
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