We aimed to identify a model of clinical and genetic risk factors through hypothesis-free search across genome that can predict the surgical recurrence risk after the first abdominal surgery in CD patients.
Two independent inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) cohort studies were used to derive and validate the genetic risk profile. The study subjects were genotyped using Illumina Immunochip custom genotyping array. Surgical recurrence was defined as having the second or more abdominal bowel resections after the first abdominal surgery at the time of study enrollment; nonsurgical recurrence was defined as having no further abdominal resection after the first abdominal surgery.
Among 372 CD patients who had at least 1 abdominal surgery at the study enrollment, 132 (35.5%) had subsequent surgical recurrence after their first abdominal surgery, and 240 (64.5%) required no subsequent abdominal surgery at the end of follow up. Among clinical factors, multivariable analysis showed that history of immunomodulatory use (odds ratio [OR], 3.96; P = 0.002) and early era of CD first surgery (OR, 1.12; P = 1.01E-04) remained significant. Genotypic association tests identified a genome-wide significant locus rs2060886 in TCF4 at chr18q21.2 associated with surgical recurrence risk (OR, dom, 4.10 [2.37-7.11]; P = 4.58E-08).
Novel genetic locus rs2060886 in TCF4 was associated with surgical recurrence risk at genome-wide significance level among CD patients after their first abdominal surgery. Early era of CD first intestinal surgery predicts higher surgical recurrence risk. These results suggest that genetic variants may help guide the CD management strategy in patients at the highest risk of repeated abdominal surgeries.