The primary fertility index for a population, the total fertility rate (TFR), cannot be calculated for many areas and periods because it requires disaggregation of births by mother’s age. Here we discuss a flexible framework for estimating TFR using inputs as minimal as a population pyramid. We develop five variants, each with increasing complexity and data requirements. We test accuracy across a diverse set of data sources that comprise more than 2,400 fertility schedules with known TFR values, including the Human Fertility Database, Demographic and Health Surveys, U.S. counties, and nonhuman species. We show that even the simplest and least accurate variant has a median error of only 0.09 births per woman over 2,400 fertility schedules, suggesting accurate TFR estimation over a wide range of demographic conditions. We anticipate that this framework will extend fertility analysis to new subpopulations, periods, geographies, and even species. To demonstrate the framework’s utility in new applications, we produce subnational estimates of African fertility levels, reconstruct historical European TFRs for periods up to 150 years before the collection of detailed birth records, and estimate TFR for the United States conditional on race and household income.
Oral pathological conditions of an Early Epipaleolithic human from Southwest Asia: Ohalo II H2 as a probable case of intentional dental ablation.
June 4, 2020
One-year outcome of critically ill patients with systemic rheumatic disease: a multicenter cohort study.
April 15, 2020
Flecainide is well-tolerated and effective in patient with atrial fibrillation at 12 months: a retrospective study.
July 9, 2020
- ACC 2020The American College of Cardiology decided to cancel ACC.20/WCC due to COVID-19, which was scheduled to take place March 28-30 in Chicago. However, ACC.20/WCC Virtual Meeting continues to release cutting edge science and practice changing updates for cardiovascular professionals on demand and free through June 2020.
- ENDO: 2020ENDO 2020 Annual Conference has been canceled due to COVID-19. Here are highlights of emerging data that has still been released. Keep an eye out for ENDO Online 2020, which will take place from June 8 to 22.