FRIDAY, Sept. 30, 2022 (HealthDay News) — Rubella elimination is likely to be achievable in all countries, but measles elimination is likely in only some countries, according to a study published in the October issue of The Lancet Global Health.

Amy K. Winter, Ph.D., from the University of Georgia in Athens, and colleagues modelled the probability of measles and rubella elimination between 2020 and 2100 under various vaccination scenarios in 93 countries. Measles and rubella burden and elimination were calculated across two national transmission models and one subnational measles transmission model. The vaccination scenarios included a business-as-usual approach and an intensified investment approach.

The researchers observed large reductions in measles and rubella incidence and burden in the study’s intensified investment scenario. Rubella elimination is likely to be achievable in all countries, while measles elimination is only likely in some countries. By 2050, the probability of elimination would exceed 75 percent in 16 and 39 percent of 93 modeled countries, respectively, in the Pennsylvania State University and Dynamic Measles Immunisation Calculation Engine national measles models. Inequity in routine coverage was highlighted as a likely driver for endemic measles transmission in a subset of countries in the subnational model of measles transmission.

“The current strategy that we use, which is focused on improving routine vaccination coverage and supplementing it with nationwide vaccination campaigns until routine vaccination is high enough, that alone is not going to be sufficient to reach measles elimination,” Winter said in a statement. “We need novel approaches.”

One author disclosed financial ties to the pharmaceutical industry.

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