Case-patients were identified from 26 pediatric otolaryngology centers in 23 U.S. states. Demographics and clinical history were abstracted from medical records. Case-patients were grouped by year of birth, and birth-cohort incidences were calculated using number of births from either national or state-level natality data from the 23 states. We calculated incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) in 2-year intervals.
We identified 576 U.S. JORRP case-patients born in 2004-2013. Median age at diagnosis was 3.4 years (interquartile range: 1.9, 5.5). Number of identified JORRP case-patients declined from a baseline of 165 born in 2004-2005 to 36 born in 2012-2013. Incidence of JORRP per 100,000 births using national data declined from 2.0 cases in 2004-2005 to 0.5 cases in 2012-2013 (IRR=0.2, CI=0.1-0.4); incidence using state-level data declined from 2.9 cases in 2004-2005 to 0.7 cases in 2012-2013 (IRR=0.2, CI=0.1-0.4).
Over a decade, numbers of JORRP case-patients and incidences declined significantly. Incidences calculated using national denominator data are likely underestimates; those calculated using state-level denominator data could be overestimates. These declines are most likely due to HPV vaccination. Increasing vaccination uptake could lead to elimination of this HPV-related disease.