The following is the summary of “A nomogram predicts cardiovascular events in patients with peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis” published in the December 2022 issue of Renal failure by Huang, et al.

The purpose of this study is to construct a clinical nomogram for predicting risk factors for cardiovascular events within 5 years in patients with peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis. Using data from the AnHui Medical University Affiliated Hospital Information Database, an observational research was performed on 150 patients who had developed peritonitis due to peritoneal dialysis. The multivariate COX regression model was employed in the development of the nomogram. The prediction model’s discrimination and calibration were evaluated using the C-index and the calibration plot.

Serum albumin [HR=0.396(0.170-0.924)] was found to be protective against cardiovascular events, while the elderly [HR=2.453(1.071-5.619)], a history of cardiovascular events [HR = 2.296(1.220-4.321)], alkaline phosphatase [HR=1.004(1.001-1.005)], and culture-positive [HR= 2.173(1.009-4.682)] were found to be risk predictors. Researchers developed a nomogram using the minimum value of the Akaike Information Criterion or the Bayesian Information Criterion in combination with clinical data. The high C index of 0.732 indicates excellent discrimination and good calibration of the nomogram. Patients are divided into those at high risk for cardiovascular events (nomogram total score) and those at low risk (ROC result) (no cardiovascular events group). 

Patients in the high-risk group had a considerably higher risk of cardiovascular events than those in the low-risk group (HR=3.862(2.202-6.772; P<0.001). Patients with peritoneal dialysis-related peritonitis can be accurately predicted to experience cardiovascular events using the unique nomogram that we present here. The paradigm, however, cannot be implemented in clinical settings without first undergoing external validation.

Source: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0886022X.2022.2126785