Factors predicting inactive thyroid eye disease (TED) progression include smoking history and a composite of disease duration and treatment history, according to findings published in Endocrine. Researchers retrospectively assessed 107 patients with inactive TED who did not undergo treatment during the follow-up period of 3-6 months. They found that 17 patients, or 15.9%, had disease progression. The team identified male sex (P=0.024), a history of smoking (P=0.009), the composite indicator combining disease duration and treatment history (P=0.026), and more severe diplopia (P=0.015) as potential risk factors for progression. In a subset of patients with disease progression, the study team noted a prominent increase in proptosis severity (P=0.021), margin reflex distance-1 (P=0.031), and clinical activity score (P=0.011). A multivariable stepwise regression analysis identified smoking history, as well as untreated TED and a disease duration of more than 12 months, as independent risk factors for progression “Our model may provide… prognostic predictions for inactive [patients with TED] preparing for surgery,” researchers wrote.
