The following is a summary of “Early prediction of unfavorable evolution after a first clinical episode suggestive of multiple sclerosis: the EUMUS score,” published in the March 2024 issue of Neurology by Mallucci et al.
Researchers conducted a retrospective study to develop the EUMUS score for predicting the risk of early evidence of disease activity and progression (EDA) in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients.
They analyzed data from 221 patients who experienced their first clinical episode of MS, gathered from four MS centers in Italy. Multiple factors were considered, and a prognostic model was developed to create the EUMUS score. The cutoff for predicting the transition from NEDA3 to EDA was determined, and its accuracy was tested in a separate UK cohort.
The results showed that after 12 months, 61.54% of patients experienced relapses and new MRI lesions. Younger age (OR 0.96, CI 0.93–0.99; P=0.005), MRI infratentorial lesion(s) at baseline (OR 2.21, CI 1.27–3.87; P=0.005), positive oligoclonal bands (OR 2.89, CI 1.47–5.69; P=0.002), and abnormal lower limb somatosensory-evoked potentials (OR 2.77, CI 1.41–5.42; P=0.003) were significantly associated with increased risk of EDA. In the independent UK cohort, the EUMUS score showed a specificity of 72% and correctly classified 80% of patients with EDA.
Investigators concluded that the EUMUS score effectively predicted MS progression within the first year following the initial clinical episode, suggesting its potential to personalize treatment plans and inform clinical decisions.
Source: link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00415-024-12304-5